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Food prices to rocket by 50% as global hunger epidemic takes hold, government doomsday report warns

By David Derbyshire
Last updated at 4:23 PM on 24th January 2011

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• 'Perfect storm' of issues will bring widespread starvation if nothing is done
• World will need '40% more food, 30% more water and 50% more energy' by middle of the century
• 'Scaremongering' over GM foods is no longer acceptable, says UK science chief
• Global population to grow to 9billion by 2050

The cost of food will soar by 50 per cent in coming years, putting a massive strain on overstretched family budgets, experts have warned.
The 'substantial' hike in prices will be triggered by the exploding world population, rising cost of fuel and increased competition for water, a leading Government think tank said.
Spiralling food prices will push hundreds of millions of people into hunger, trigger mass migrations and spark riots around the world, the report warned.

Food crisis: A leading Government think tank has warned scaremongering over GM farming is no longer acceptable

The world is facing a commodities crisis that could leave millions unable to afford the rising costs of food as population levels soar

And in the UK, the price of everyday basics like bread, rice and milk will spiral to inflation-busting record prices within the next few decades.
The report called for 'urgent action' to prevent food shortages and said genetically modified crops may be needed to prevent famines.

 

More...

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• How to slash the cost of your weekly food shop (thisismoney.co.uk)

The warning comes as global food prices are already at a record high. Last month the price cereals, sugar and meat soared on the world's markets after a series of crop failures caused by bad weather.
The new report comes from Foresight, a think tank set up to predict future crises.
It predicted that the world's population would rise from 6.9billion today to around 9billion by the middle of the century.

Bleak outlook: Sir John cited swelling population levels, energy shortages and climate change will make 'perfect storm' forcing widespread starvation

As the world gets more crowded and more wealthy, demand for food, water and energy will soar.
At the same time, climate change will increase the risk of droughts, floods and crop failures - creating a 'perfect storm' of food shortages and above inflation hikes in prices.
'There is a very large risk of a quite substantial increase in prices over the next 30 or 40 years,' said co-author Professor Charles Godfray of Oxford University.
'We are going to have to produce considerably more food. So inescapably we are going to have to produce more food from the same amount of land without wrecking the environment.'
The report, written by 40 scientists in 35 countries, called for a 'green revolution' to boost production using traditional, organic and genetically modified crops - designed to be resistant to drought or salt water - and better training for farmers in poor and middle income countries.
It also called for a massive crackdown on food waste - claiming that a third of all food produced today ends up in the bin.
A typical UK household wastes £500 to £700 a year on food that they buy and don't eat.
Professor Sherman Robinson of Sussex University, an author of the report, said food prices could go up by 50 per cent over the next few decades.
'The robust conclusion is that the long run decline in food prices is over,' he said.
Even a 'modest' rise in food prices could push 100million people into hunger, the report warned.
Professor John Beddington, the Government's chief scientific adviser, said the food system was failing.
'Firstly it is unsustainable, with resources being used faster than they can be naturally replenished,' he said.
'Secondly a billion people are going hungry with another billion people suffering from "hidden hunger", whilst a billion people are over-consuming.'

Swelling: Sir John said he world's population will reach a total of around 9,000 million by 2050, with around 60% living in cities

Professor Tim Lang from the Centre for Food Policy at City University London said: 'The evidence suggests a complex situation emerging for the world’s food system. It is being hit by a multiple-whammy of environmental threats, financial pressures, societal demands, supply chain power fights and health inequalities.
'The problems outlined by the Foresight Report are in a sense depressingly predictable, but it cannot say what we all know.
'While the focus is often on Africa, the reality is that the Western world’s model of food production and consumption is not sustainable either. We over-consume, pay too little, have heavy environmental footprints, and distort our health.
'Yet somehow the politicians and policy-makers won’t get a grip. They are frightened of unlocking us from an unsustainable system


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1350009/Food-prices-rocket-50-global-hunger-epidemic-takes-hold.html#ixzz1BygqFu00

Make money in 2011: What to invest in 2011

Make money in 2011: What to invest in

The most successful investor last year was a brave one.

Happy New Year: Now, let's make some money

WANT TO KNOW MORE?

• Stock market outlook 2011
• How to spot the strong shares
• Midas: Three winners to start 2011
• Equity Isas: The expert tips for 2011
• Where will the FTSE 100 end 2011?
• Best performing sectors of 2010

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Those ­daring enough to buy when the market tumbled fared the best during a roller-coaster 12 months — with profits of up to 23%.
While the stock market soared 22% in 2009 — the biggest rise since 2003 ­— the gains were not as great in 2010. Yet anyone who stuck with it will be sitting on a tidy 9% profit.
But, at times, it felt to many as though the market was lurching from one crisis to another — and in the midst of it all there was the uncertainty of a General Election.
The FTSE 100 index of the country's ­biggest blue-chip companies stood at 5,899.9 at the end of the year, having breached the 6,000 barrier on December 23 for the first time since June 2008. ­Anyone who invested on July 1 when the FTSE 100 hit a trough of 4,790 could be sitting on gains of 23.2%.
The main problem for investors has been the ­succession of economic crises ­spreading through Europe.
Hannah Edwards, an investment expert at BRI Asset Management, says: 'There has been enormous volatility. If you'd gone into the market in the early part of the summer you'd have enjoyed 14 to 15% growth, but over 12 months the picture hasn't been so favourable.'
More than £20bn was ploughed into ­investment funds last year. But experts emphasise that investors should not get carried away and it is vital to keep a solid base in cash. It's also important to watch out for the fees being charged, to make sure they are giving value for money.

I'm young, so I can afford to take risks

Cathy Holder, 32, has seen her investments grow by around 15% this year.
Mrs Holder saves £300 a month in an investment Isa split three ways between Aberdeen Emerging Markets, M&G Recovery and Neptune Russia & Greater Russia.
Currently on maternity leave from her job in advertising, Mrs Holder admits she has led something of a charmed life in the markets since she started investing at the start of 2007. She cashed in just before the credit crunch in spring 2007 and then bought back into the market cheaply in Christmas of the same year.
Her investments have grown by 40% in total.
She says: 'It was more luck than judgment — we just needed the money for a deposit for the house.'
Mrs Holder, who is married to Peter, says she went to discount broker ­Chelsea Financial Services to open an investment Isa after seeing the returns from her savings accounts dry up.
She says: 'I'm young and am investing for the long term, so I can afford to take risks. I think investing monthly is a good way of hedging your bets because you can buy into the market cheaply when markets go down.'
›› Tables: Top-selling funds

HOW THE LARGEST FUNDS PERFORMED

Most investors will have some money tied up in the largest 20 funds, which run £94.1bn between them.
As Money Mail has revealed, these ­popular funds are pocketing more than £2bn a year in charges. So have they earned that money?
Investment analyst Morningstar says that 11 ­produced below-average returns when compared with their peers. But most have matched or beaten the ­standard index of the markets in which they are invested.
Invesco Perpetual's Neil Woodford — one of the best-known fund managers, with more than £24bn in the High Income and Income funds — is a case in point. High Income has returned 10.9%, against 14.5% in the average income fund. But the fund has at least matched the 10.9% rise in the FTSE All Share and pipped the 9% rise in the FTSE 100.
Mr Woodford is pessimistic about the economy and has concentrated on so-called 'defensive' sectors such as tobacco and pharmaceutical companies, which tend to do well even when markets are doing badly. Other funds that failed to beat their peers include M&G Recovery, Artemis Income and Fidelity's Special Situations fund.

›› Blog: Invest in Woodford on the cheap via the Edinburgh Investment Trust

Another favourite among investors, Newton's £2.7bn Higher Income, has had a testing year. It was hit hard by the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and its ­decision in June to suspend its dividend for the rest of the year.
It has returned just 8.2% compared with an average profit of 14.5% in its peer group. But those seeking income should be pleased — as the fund is yielding around 8%.
Those that have done better than their peer group include First State Asia Pacific Leaders and Halifax ­Corporate Bond.
The biggest seller of last year was ­Standard Life's Global Absolute Return Strategies, which attracted a staggering £4bn during 2010. It ­produced a £982 profit on a £10,000 lump sum invested at the start of the year. This compares with just £502 achieved by its peers.
The Global Absolute Return fund bets on shares going up and down as well as investing in companies around the world and has a large mixture of assets including shares, bonds and commodities.
One of the best performers is M&G Global Basics. It returned 27.7% last year, almost twice the average in its peer group.
Brian Dennehy, from financial adviser Dennehy Weller, says: 'This is the thinking man's way into emerging markets. It does not invest directly in these emerging markets, but in firms such as ­Unilever which sell products to the rapidly expanding middle classes in those markets.'

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THE WINNERS
If you bought into smaller ­companies, gold or emerging ­markets, such as India and China, then give yourself a pat on the back. The average fund investing in smaller companies enjoyed a 30.7% rise last year.
John ­Chatfeild-Roberts, chief investment officer at fund ­manager Jupiter, says: 'Domestic smaller companies were completely hammered in 2008. Lots of firms cut costs and reacted quickly to conditions, making them more efficient.'
One of the most successful funds was Standard Life's UK Smaller ­Companies. If you'd invested £10,000 at the start of 2010, you'd have made a £4,719 profit. Those who gambled on emerging markets such as India and China have seen 23.5% growth in the average fund, on the back of a 60% rise in 2009, and a 40% loss in 2008.

Plain sailing: The emerging markets of China and India did very well in 2010

Huge demand for goods from these countries' expanding middle classes is fuelling growth.  One of the best performing funds, First State Global Emerging ­Markets Sustainability, has turned a £3,835 profit on a £10,000 investment.
Another success story has been gold, to which investors ­typically turn in testing economic times. Gold prices soared 32.5% from $1,037 (£658) to $1,410 (£910) per troy ounce.
A £10,000 lump sum invested in Investec Global Gold would have been worth £15,219 at the end of the year, according to ­Morningstar. Demand, especially from China and India, has driven up prices.

›› Look up discounts on hundreds of ISAs with our fund supermarket
THE LOSERS
Few investors will be nursing heavy losses this year. In every single investment ­sector, the average fund made money. The largest loss posted by a fund holding more than £50m was -8.6% by CF Octopus Absolute UK Equity.
Some investors in ­corporate bond funds have lost money recently due to the ­crisis spreading across Europe. Bonds are issued by ­companies and governments which promise to pay a regular income and return your capital after a fixed period.
The danger is that they won't be able to pay the income or might go bust and not be able to repay the original investments. Bond funds lost around 5% of their value when Greece needed financial help in May. And the average one has fallen in each of the past three months.
Despite these losses, the average corporate bond fund made 7.8% last year. For the cheapest way to invest in funds, go to www.thisismoney.co.uk/fund-tips

EXPERTS' VIEW: WHERE TO INVEST YOUR CASH
Mark Dampier, head of investment research at financial adviser Hargreaves Lansdown:
BUY: Equity income funds and smaller companies. 'Barring complete financial meltdown, funds like Artemis Income and Psigma Income look good bets. Investors like emerging markets, but smaller companies have done better since the start of the year. I'd go for Marlborough Special Situations and Standard Life UK Smaller Companies.' 

SELL: Straightforward corporate bond funds.    
Gary Potter, fund manager at investment firm Thames River:
BUY: Blue-chip firms in good equity income funds. 'The FTSE 100 is still 1,000 points lower than ten years ago, and shares look cheap compared to bonds. I'd go for  BlackRock UK Income, Standard Life UK Equity Income Unconstrained and Invesco High Income.'   
SELL: Property. 'Be careful with property. There is a huge amount of money in it and I'd start to reduce my exposure if the outlook gets worse.'    
Tom Becket, manager of Psigma Balanced Managed Fund of Funds:
BUY: Shares in global companies with strong sales to emerging markets. 'These are most ­easily accessed through funds such as M&G Global Basics and Morgan Stanley Global Brands. Our favoured funds for global equity income would be M&G Global Dividend and Lazard Global Equity Income.'
SELL: Commercial property. 'There is not much potential for capital growth. The opportunity for income in prime assets has mostly been taken.' 

›› 2011 share tips from 2010's best stock-pickers

Terry Smith, manager of the Fundsmith Equity Fund:
BUY: Shares in companies producing toiletries, cosmetics, household products, food, pet food and drinks. 'I will stick to investing in companies which supply small-ticket, consumer non-durables — the everyday necessities.' 
SELL: Nothing. 'I invest for the long term in stocks I believe in, so won't be selling.'   
Simon Marsh, partner at stockbrokers Killik & Co:
BUY: Japanese shares. 'Japanese equities represent a great way to play the coming inflationary wave. In Japan, 60% of household wealth is currently held in deposits, with 7% in fixed income and only 4% in equities. We believe there could be a massive move towards equities which could lead to rapid growth. Neptune Japan Opportunities is a good fund.' 
SELL:  Long-dated gilts. 'In an inflationary environment, long-dated bonds are likely to suffer more than bonds of shorter duration.'   
Hannah Edwards, head of new clients at financial adviser BRI Asset Management:
BUY: Absolute return funds. 'This is the best way of managing volatility because investors can make money in a falling market. I like Standard Life Global Absolute Strategic Returns. We'd invest in mining stocks through funds like BlackRock Gold & General to exploit rising gold prices. Also emerging market debt funds such as Lazard Emerging Market Total Return Debt as you get good income and growth.'
SELL:  Commodities. 'We'd be reducing ­exposure to commodity-based funds.'
John Chatfeild-Roberts, chief investment officer at Jupiter:
BUY: Multinationals. 'Profitable companies will get stronger. Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson are not looking expensive. So I'd buy global large company funds like M&G Global Dividends and Artemis Income. Smaller company funds are still not flavour of the month, despite strong performance. There are opportunities, but not as many as a year ago. I'd recommend Old Mutual UK Select Smaller Companies.'
SELL: Bonds. 'Fixed-interest funds investing in sovereign debt are not a great place to be. ­Inflation also means gilts are a recipe for destroying your wealth.'


Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing/article.html?in_article_id=520723&in_page_id=166#ixzz1ByfwC6Or

Make money in 2011: What to invest?

Make money in 2011: What to invest?

Oil price predictions: What next?

Oil price predictions: What next?

Oil, they say, makes the world go round. The price of it impacts upon all areas of the domestic and global economy.
Fluctuations in the oil price can make the goods we buy more or less expensive, and can determine the profits that companies make for shareholders.
Here we report the very latest oil price movements, with predictions from expert commentators and explanations of why the oil price is moving in the way it is.

SEE THE LATEST BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

CHART HISTORIC OIL PRICES

THE LATEST ON OIL PRICES
Renowned commodities investor Jim Rogers has predicted that oil prices will surge to $200 a barrel in a China-driven commodities boom.
Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, has been vocal in his view that China will drive strong demand for commodities for many years.
In an interview with the BBC, Rogers said: 'The best way to invest in Asia in my view is to buy commodities, because the Chinese have to buy cotton, they have to buy zinc, they have to buy oil, they have to buy natural resources because they don't have enough.'
World standard Brent Crude oil is currently $96.5 a barrel. That is some way below the $147 price hit in June 2008, although that 'super spike' in prices was driven by huge oil price speculation, and was less to do with the fundamentals of supply and demand.
On oil, Rogers said: 'The surprise is going to be how high the price of oil stays and how high it goes, because we have had no major elephant oil discoveries in over 40 years. Known reserves of oil are declining. It is not good news. Unless somebody discovers a lot of oil very quickly, prices are going to go much higher over the next decade.
'The price of oil is going to make new highs. It will go over $150 a barrel. It will probably go over $200 a barrel.'
Across the board, commodities have been on the rise with prices driven by demand from huge emerging economies in China, India, Brazil and elsewhere. But Rogers said the price rises are just the beginning.
He said: 'The only commodity I know which is making an all time high is gold. Some commodities are up, yes. Sugar is up a lot, but sugar is still 50% below its all time high. How can you say that's bolted? Silver is going up, but silver is 40% below its all time high. Yes, commodities have been going up recently, but they are still extremely depressed on a historic basis.'

Recent factors pushing the price up have been:
• A weaker dollar
The US dollar has fallen against both the euro and sterling during the past four months. The value of the dollar is important to the price of oil because oil is priced in the US currency. If the US loses it's value relative to other currencies, oil becomes cheaper for buyers in other currencies, demand rises, and so does the oil price.
• A resilient economy in China
China's rapid economic growth has been a key driver of the oil price because so much of the development there is dependent of large amounts of the commodity. Signs of weakness in the Chinese economy had hurt all commodity prices, including oil, in the first part of this year.
However, stronger manufacturing data in July reassured markets that the Chinese slowdown had perhaps bottomed-out, and demand for oil was bolstered.
Recent factors pushing the oil price down;
• Fears of a double-dip in the US
The world's largest economy is critical to the oil price. Americans are the biggest consumers anywhere and oil is critical to that. The prospect of a weak US economy, with American reluctant to spend, harms the oil price.
US economy data has been mixed for many months. Waning consumer confidence and poor jobs data are the latest indicators of weakness.

Click here to see the very latest oil price.

BACKGROUND: OIL PRICES
The first half of 2008 saw a super-spike in commodities, led by oil. With the seriousness of the credit crunch yet to sink in, crude rocketed to $147 a barrel in July. The rally was based on:
• Soaring demand from China et al
• Dwindling petroleum reserves
• Increased unrest in the Middle East
• Increased pressure from oil speculators (read more on this below).
In common with most other assets, the price of oil then tumbled, bottoming out below at a little above $30.

Put simply, the oil importing countries - us, the Americans, most of the rest of the world - were flying less, buying fewer cars and spending less on products that need to be transported to us from around the world.

'Why the oil price will rise - and why it's so bad for Britain'

The slowdown in the global economy, as credit to consumers and businesses dries up, has hit demand hard. Falling car sales and reduced airline traffic as consumers tighten their belts has meant less demand for oil.
The drop off in demand, while predicted to happen, has come much sooner and is sharper than most economists expected.
Reductions in activities dependent on oil are not the only things pulling the oil price down. Oil is priced in dollars and the strengthening of the greenback means that a barrel of oil is effectively more expensive for buyers ' weakening demand even further.

How oil fell from the 'super-spike' in 2008

Easy ways to invest


• How to invest in oil prices
• How to invest in gold
• How to invest in China
• How to invest in Africa
• How to invest in India
• How to invest in food prices
• How to invest in emerging markets
• Tables: Top-selling funds

WHAT DOES THE OIL PRICE DEPEND ON?
The price of a barrel of oil is the result of a number of competing factors: How much oil is available, how much oil is demanded by consumers, how much it costs to get oil from the ground to the consumer, the price of dollars and the potential that oil speculators see for the price to rise and fall.

Many of the long-term global trends point to steady increases in the price of oil. Reserves are finite so the commodity is slowly becoming scarcer ' something that pushes the price up.
The explosion of development in countries like China and India has created more demand as those and other developing regions industrialise. They build more roads and increase manufacturing ' it all requires oil.
The bearish argument is that technological new energy developments - solar, wind, etc - should begin to reduce the world's dependence on the black stuff.

Supply is fettered by the countries that export it. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) meets regularly to set the amount they are willing to release onto the market. Opec oil accounts for approximately 35m of the 80m barrels released onto the global market each day.
Opec can reduce output as a means to push prices higher and can increase it to meet greater demand. It is tempting to think that all the producers are motivated simply by a high price. In fact, for some countries it may be beneficial to have a lower price if it means they can maintain, or increase, the volumes they sell.
Oil is priced in dollars so movements in that currency also impacts on crude. The weaker the dollar, the higher the dollar price of oil because it takes more dollars to buy a barrel.
There is one more factor that is thought to influence the price of oil. It is possible for investors to speculate on the price of oil by purchasing futures contracts. Investors ' they could include investment banks, hedge funds or pension funds ' will buy a quantity of oil to be delivered at a future date. If the price of oil has risen by the time the contract is delivered, the investor makes money. It became a contentious issue in 2008 when critics alleged that this type of speculation helped to push the price of a barrel to a record $147.
However, investors have defended the process, arguing that speculation does nothing to reduce the actual amount of oil on the market, which would push the price up, and that other commodity markets have shown greater increases than the oil market with no price speculation.


(DAILYMAIL.COM)